ARA increases 2026 U.S. and Canada rental projections after Q2 growth

In its latest economic forecast, the American Rental Association (ARA) indicates that the combined U.S. construction and industrial equipment (CIE) and general tool rental industry is projected to increase by 3.6 percent in 2026, totalling $83.5 billion. This is an increase from last quarter's projection of a 2.8 percent increase in 2026, totalling $82.9 billion.

"Rental revenue continued to grow, particularly in areas where the large and megaproject work is," said Tom Doyle, ARA vice president, program development. "The trend toward more rental versus ownership also continues. Rental tailwinds include project uncertainty, market volatility, sustainability, financial flexibility for the rental user, and the high cost of owning. Rental companies are focused and delivering better solutions."

Beyond 2026, growth in combined U.S. CIE and general tool rental revenue is projected to grow at a pace of 3.8 percent in 2027 and 4.4 percent in 2028.

Scott Hazelton, managing director at S&P Global, the international forecasting firm that compiles data and analysis for the ARA forecast, said equipment rental's projected growth over the next couple of years relates to the anticipated shedding of "uncertainty around so many things — geopolitics, energy prices, tariffs, and a lot of things that are holding back investment decisions that, as we get more clarity, will get better and better." 

Hazelton said growth in the CIE segment is in stasis due to a construction market that is currently stagnant, while the general tool segment is advancing. "This year [general tool] is a little bit weak, but overall, in the outer years, it is strong. Part of that is increased adoption, part of that is an increased housing outlook, and part of that is the manufacturing sector that gets a little more strength as we get past some of these tariff-inflicted pains of last year."

Rental growth in Canada continues to climb

In Canada, the combined CIE and general tool rental industry is forecast to grow 5 percent this year, totalling $6.3 billion. This is an increase from the previous quarter, when this segment was projected to reach $6 billion in 2026.

Beyond 2026, growth in combined Canadian CIE and general tool rental revenue is projected at 5.8 percent in 2027 before dipping slightly to 5.4 percent in 2028.

The softer growth projected for overall Canadian equipment rental revenue beyond 2027 is attributed to moderations in rental revenue as construction markets and industrial production cool.